Power Options Weekly: Gold & Silver Shine

My indicators are giving bullish readings for the second week in a row as the strong momentum in the overall market continues.
Jul 24, 2020

Dear Savio,

Despite yesterday's mild pullback, my indicators are giving bullish readings for the second week in a row as the strong momentum in the overall market continues.

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 index has broken out of the sideways channel I identified last week.

Daily Chart of S&P 500 Index -- Source: TradingView

It has now entered an overhead resistance zone that spans from about 3,230 on the low end to roughly 3,330 on the high end. This could result in some choppy trading in the near term.

But really, some further consolidation may be the best thing for the market at this point. Many stocks, especially in the tech sector, have barely slowed down since bouncing off of the March lows, and that pace just cannot continue forever.

Daily Chart of Gold & Silver -- Source: TradingView

Also, for the first time in a while, other asset classes are gaining investor attention and giving stocks a run for their money.

For instance, look at the action in both gold (in the upper panel of the chart above) and silver (in the lower panel).

Gold is up 32% over the trailing year, while silver is up almost 37%. Over just the last month, gold is up close to 7%, and silver is up a massive 25%.

I have been saying for some time now that silver would catch up to the rally in gold, and that has finally happened. And it makes perfect sense why precious metals are rallying.

The recent actions of the Federal Reserve have pushed both the U.S. dollar and bond yields down dramatically.

Because precious metals are priced in dollars, a lower dollar means higher prices for gold and silver. Furthermore, with real yields on the floor or even negative (nominal yield minus inflation), precious metals are becoming a much more attractive alternative for parking cash.

This is presenting some good opportunities in gold mining stocks, and I've included a new bullish recommendation in Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD) below to take advantage of the situation.

Daily Chart of S&P 500 Volatility Index -- Source: TradingView

Getting back to the stock market, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) fell back below its 200-day moving average at the close last Friday and stayed below that level for most of the week.

However, it has now found some support at the 23.50 level and started to move higher again. I'm not too concerned about this, as the VIX is in a pretty clear downtrend from the March highs, which I expect will continue.

But once again, we could be in for some choppy trading in the near term while both the S&P 500 and the VIX deal with key technical levels.

In the meantime, there are plenty of stocks with constructive chart patterns that could start to play catch-up to the overall market. In addition to the Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD) calls, I'm recommending three more bullish trades below.

I'm also recommending a bearish trade on the U.S. dollar, which I think will continue to fall, via put options on the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP).

Let's take a look now…

This Week's Trades

Every week, I scan thousands of potential option plays to develop your exclusive list of Power Options. These Power Options rely on a proprietary, scientific approach that removes the guesswork and allows my powerful software to identify the best option buys.

All of these short-term options are actionable for up to three days after they are recommended. You'll need to watch the stock and option prices to ensure the trades are close to where they were when I made the recommendation. If after three days you still have not gotten the position filled, cancel the order and watch for my new recommendations, as the profit probabilities may no longer be valid.

Buy to open the Golar LNG Limited (GLNG) Sept. 18th $10 Calls (GLNG200918C00010000) at $0.40 or lower. After entry, take profits if the stock price hits $9.00 or the option price hits $0.90. Exit if the stock price closes below $7.10.

Buy to open the Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD) Sept. 18th $30 Calls (GOLD200918C00030000) at $1.25 or lower. After entry, take profits if the stock price hits $31.10 or the option price hits $2.80. Exit if the stock price closes below $26.50.

Buy to open the Penn Virginia Corp. (PVAC) Sept. 18th $12.50 Calls (PVAC200918C00012500) at $1.85 or lower. After entry, take profits if the stock price hits $12.90 or the option price hits $2.90. Exit if the stock price closes below $10.20.

Buy to open the Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) Sept. 18th $19 Calls (CNQ200918C00019000) at $1.00 or lower. After entry, take profits if the stock price hits $20.00 or the option price hits $2.00. Exit if the stock price closes below $17.10.

Buy to open the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) Sept. 18th $26 Puts (UUP200918P00026000) at $0.55 or lower. After entry, take profits if the stock price hits $25.30 or the option price hits $0.80. Exit if the stock price closes above $25.80.

Remember, if a profit target is hit intra-day, exit and take profits immediately. Occasionally, if a sudden profit appears, we may recommend exiting a position early to capture the gains, and my team will alert you during the trading day via email or text message if you have elected to receive them.

If the underlying shares violate the stock-based sell signal price at the close of trading, exit the option trade the next morning at the open.

Additionally, if an option or its underlying stock does not hit its target, or if the stock does not violate its sell signal price within three weeks of entry, close the position. I do not recommend holding an option play for more than three weeks.

Action to Take on Current Positions

We have not closed any trades since Wednesday's Weekly Review, and we are not planning to exit any positions this morning either.

On Monday, however, our position in the Greif, Inc. (GEF) Aug. 21st $30 Puts will reach its maximum three-week holding limit.

Shares of GEF began to fall shortly after we entered the trade, but they have since bounced back and are now testing the underside of the 200-day moving average.

I don't think the stock will be able to break above that level, but unfortunately, we have run out of time for this particular trade. We'll be exiting our GEF puts at the open on Monday morning, and I recommend that you do the same.

Thanks for reading, have a great weekend and stay safe out there.

Sincerely,

signed: Ken Trester
Ken Trester and the Power Options Weekly Team

P.S. 101 Option Trading Secrets

In this 336 page book, Ken condenses over 40 years of options experience into 101 concise secrets that can help you maximize your trading gains. These secrets are tried and tested in the real world of options trading…use them to stack the investment odds in your favor. Learn more by clicking here now.


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