These Prints Show That Another Big Market Move Is Coming Hello, Savio. In last Monday’s Dark Pool Trader Weekly Review, I pointed out that the trend had changed on the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY). It turned bearish when the four-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed below the eight-day EMA on the daily chart. So early on Thursday, March 4, I recommended taking 140% gains on another quarter of the SPY Debit Put Spread that we initiated on February 25 if that spread hit $0.48. It did just that later that day. ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/POOL/Weekly+Reviews/March+2021/030821/SPY+Daily+Chart.png) Earlier, on February 26, we closed the first half of this debit put spread for 105% gains. So, even if the final quarter of this trade expires worthless this Friday, we’ll still come out with better than 85% gains. Meanwhile, stay tuned for my instructions on the final quarter. QQQ Debit Put Spread It’s been a rough few weeks for the markets, with plenty of massive bearish prints on most of the major indexes. So on Thursday, March 4, I recommended a new debit put spread… this time on the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), the Nasdaq 100 ETF. The best time to put on a bearish trade is at resistance. You can see from the five-minute chart of the QQQ that it moved up on lower volume. But the selling came in at the top. ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/POOL/Weekly+Reviews/March+2021/030821/QQQ+Five+Minute+Chart.png) That is why the QQQ fell so quickly – and why I recommended taking 65% profits on half the spread almost immediately, before it actually hit our target. I watch the stock when I am recommending option trades. Many traders ask me how I pick my strikes on these spreads. Most of the time I choose a target price. On both the QQQ and SPY spread trades I am using the actual price of the ETF for a target. Price levels are where computers are programmed to buy and sell. The $5 increment levels are the strongest levels. This is why I chose the $376/$375 spread for our most recent SPY trade… and this is why I chose the $299/$301 spread for our QQQ Debit Put Spread. When the QQQ came down to the $300 level, I recommended taking some profit a little bit early. The pattern is that the ETF would bounce up off that $300 level. Indeed, the ETF came down to $300.11 and bounced up. Why did that happen? ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/POOL/Weekly+Reviews/March+2021/030821/QQQ+One+Day+Chart.png) Below is the high, low, open, close… the “HLOC.” The QQQ’s low of the day was $300.11. ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/POOL/Weekly+Reviews/March+2021/030821/QQQ+HLOC.png) Here’s how Edwin Lefèvre put it in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, his fictionalized book about legendary trader Jesse Livermore: One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent. This book was first published in 1923, and nothing has changed. As you can see the market is still trading off eighths. I educate my traders to get out before the last eighth. When I first started trading in 1994, the market was trading in fractions. Well, guess what? The market is still trading in fractions! I educate my traders how to scale in and out of these price levels all day long. Those BUG Prints In last Monday’s Weekly Review, I also shared with you some bizarre prints on the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG). Those were 5 million+-share premarket prints early on February 22, 23, and 24, with no volume being recorded in the stock charts. Immediately after those 15 million-plus prints, on February 24, a crucial Federal Reserve system went down. Then last Friday, March 5, we saw another massive hacking across the United States. ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/POOL/Weekly+Reviews/March+2021/030821/Hack+Headlines.png) When it comes to Dark Pool investing, the prints always come first. The same is true of “real life.” What We’re Looking at This Week We have seen a few massive Dark Pool prints on the SPY: - 10 million printed at $376.42 on March 5.
- 10 million printed at $381.51 on March 4.
- 10 million printed at $382.37 on February 26.
So this week, I am bullish above $385 and bearish below $380 for the SPY. You can see from the chart below that the SPY is in a wedge right now. ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/POOL/Weekly+Reviews/March+2021/030821/SPY+One+Day+Chart+2.png) I also continue to see very heavy Dark Pool activity on the QQQ: - 4 million prints at $303.85 on March 5.
- 3 million prints $318.30 on March 3.
- 5 million prints $312.65 on February 26.
For the QQQ this week, then, I am bullish above $313… and bearish below $303. ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/POOL/Weekly+Reviews/March+2021/030821/QQQ+One+Day+Chart+2.png) On Friday, March 5, we had some massive but sneaky prints that came in on two ETF’s that have some major top holdings in them: the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF (SPYV) and the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG). Below are my “levels” tweets on these ETFs. ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/POOL/Weekly+Reviews/March+2021/030821/SPYV+Tweet.png) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/POOL/Weekly+Reviews/March+2021/030821/SPYG+Tweet.png) You can see on the charts below that this was an extraordinary amount of volume for these SPDR ETFs. ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/POOL/Weekly+Reviews/March+2021/030821/SPYV+Chart.png) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/POOL/Weekly+Reviews/March+2021/030821/SPYG+Chart.png) I expect another big move to happen in the market soon… so we’ll be watching these levels this week. Until next time… Happy trading, ![Signed: Stefanie Kammerman](https://marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/SIGNATURES/kammerman.png) Stefanie Kammerman, Editor, Dark Pool Trader |
Comments
Post a Comment