Dark Pool Trader Weekly Review: These Prints Show That Another Big Market Move Is Coming

The best time to put on a bearish trade is at resistance.

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Dark Pool Trader with Stefanie Kammerman

These Prints Show That Another Big Market Move Is Coming

Hello, Savio.

In last Monday’s Dark Pool Trader Weekly Review, I pointed out that the trend had changed on the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY). It turned bearish when the four-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed below the eight-day EMA on the daily chart.

So early on Thursday, March 4, I recommended taking 140% gains on another quarter of the SPY Debit Put Spread that we initiated on February 25 if that spread hit $0.48. It did just that later that day.

Earlier, on February 26, we closed the first half of this debit put spread for 105% gains. So, even if the final quarter of this trade expires worthless this Friday, we’ll still come out with better than 85% gains. Meanwhile, stay tuned for my instructions on the final quarter.

QQQ Debit Put Spread

It’s been a rough few weeks for the markets, with plenty of massive bearish prints on most of the major indexes. So on Thursday, March 4, I recommended a new debit put spread… this time on the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), the Nasdaq 100 ETF.

The best time to put on a bearish trade is at resistance. You can see from the five-minute chart of the QQQ that it moved up on lower volume. But the selling came in at the top.

That is why the QQQ fell so quickly – and why I recommended taking 65% profits on half the spread almost immediately, before it actually hit our target. I watch the stock when I am recommending option trades.

Many traders ask me how I pick my strikes on these spreads. Most of the time I choose a target price.

On both the QQQ and SPY spread trades I am using the actual price of the ETF for a target. Price levels are where computers are programmed to buy and sell.

The $5 increment levels are the strongest levels. This is why I chose the $376/$375 spread for our most recent SPY trade… and this is why I chose the $299/$301 spread for our QQQ Debit Put Spread.

When the QQQ came down to the $300 level, I recommended taking some profit a little bit early. The pattern is that the ETF would bounce up off that $300 level.

Indeed, the ETF came down to $300.11 and bounced up. Why did that happen?

Below is the high, low, open, close… the “HLOC.” The QQQ’s low of the day was $300.11.

Here’s how Edwin Lefèvre put it in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, his fictionalized book about legendary trader Jesse Livermore:

One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.

This book was first published in 1923, and nothing has changed. As you can see the market is still trading off eighths. I educate my traders to get out before the last eighth.

When I first started trading in 1994, the market was trading in fractions. Well, guess what? The market is still trading in fractions! I educate my traders how to scale in and out of these price levels all day long.

Those BUG Prints

In last Monday’s Weekly Review, I also shared with you some bizarre prints on the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG). Those were 5 million+-share premarket prints early on February 22, 23, and 24, with no volume being recorded in the stock charts.

Immediately after those 15 million-plus prints, on February 24, a crucial Federal Reserve system went down.

Then last Friday, March 5, we saw another massive hacking across the United States.

When it comes to Dark Pool investing, the prints always come first. The same is true of “real life.”

What We’re Looking at This Week

We have seen a few massive Dark Pool prints on the SPY:

  • 10 million printed at $376.42 on March 5.
  • 10 million printed at $381.51 on March 4.
  • 10 million printed at $382.37 on February 26.

So this week, I am bullish above $385 and bearish below $380 for the SPY. You can see from the chart below that the SPY is in a wedge right now.

I also continue to see very heavy Dark Pool activity on the QQQ:

  • 4 million prints at $303.85 on March 5.
  • 3 million prints $318.30 on March 3.
  • 5 million prints $312.65 on February 26.

For the QQQ this week, then, I am bullish above $313… and bearish below $303.

On Friday, March 5, we had some massive but sneaky prints that came in on two ETF’s that have some major top holdings in them: the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF (SPYV) and the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG). Below are my “levels” tweets on these ETFs.

You can see on the charts below that this was an extraordinary amount of volume for these SPDR ETFs.

I expect another big move to happen in the market soon… so we’ll be watching these levels this week.

Until next time…

Happy trading,

Signed: Stefanie Kammerman
Stefanie Kammerman,
Editor, Dark Pool Trader


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