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Ever since Donald Trump won the 47th U.S. presidential election, the market has been on a roller-coaster ride. Stocks are back-and-forth on deregulation hopes, tariff drama, and geopolitical tensions, among other things. It has been an eventful three months. Of course, after such an eventful start to Trump’s second term, a lot of folks are asking the question: What will the next four years be like for the stock market? Fortunately, we don’t have to guess how a Trump presidency will impact stocks. We can just look back at how stocks did throughout 2017, ‘18, and ‘19 to determine how they may perform over the next few years. (Note: we’re excluding 2020 from this analysis due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a unique phenomenon unlikely to repeat in the next four years.) So – how did stocks do in the Trump 1.0 era? In short, they soared in 2017 on improved economic growth and lower taxes, then stumbled in 2018 as new tariffs arrived and caused reinflation. Stocks recovered in 2019 as tariffs eased, inflation fell, and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates. And from where things stand today, a repeat of that performance seems quite possible. A Lookback at the Era of Trump 1.0 Specifically, in 2017, we saw an immediate acceleration in GDP from 2% to 4.6%. This caused some reinflation, but not much. The market didn’t care. Economic reacceleration was the story of the year. Stocks soared. 
But then the first big batch of tariffs arrived in early 2018 – and everything changed. First, there were the 30% to 50% tariffs enacted on solar panels and washing machines in January. Then, in March, we got a 25% steel tariff and 10% aluminum tariff. Those escalated and expanded into June 2018. Steel prices spiked by about 50% in the first half of 2018. Aluminum prices jumped around 30%. The entire Bloomberg Commodity Index – a strong gauge of all commodity prices – rose about 10% in the first half of 2018, mostly due to the tariffs increasing prices and stalling global trade. And as a result, inflation started to become a problem once again. It rose from ~2% to ~3% in the first half of 2018, which forced the Federal Reserve to get more aggressive with its rate-hiking cycle. Indeed, the central bank hiked interest rates four times in 2018 to fight tariff-fueled reinflation. Higher prices and higher rates weighed on the economy. GDP slowed from 4.6% at the end of 2017 to 0.6% at the end of 2018. The combination of higher prices, higher rates, and falling growth spooked investors and led to a violent ~20% market crash between September and December 2018. 
In response to the market volatility and slowing growth conditions, the Fed stopped hiking rates in early 2019. Simultaneously, Trump started rolling back certain tariffs, particularly steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Inflation eased. The Fed cut rates. The economy restrengthened, with GDP recovering to 4.8% by late 2019. And the stock market soared. 
| Recommended Link | | | | If you think AI is slowing down, think again! In fact, AI is now entering a whole new frontier that Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang calls a $100 trillion opportunity. And today, Wall Street legend Louis Navellier – the man who called Nvidia before it bolted 37,000% for those who held on – is issuing Strong Buy recommendations on 7 under-the-radar stocks, each of which he believes have 1,000% upside potential. Go here now for the shocking details. |  | | The Final Word on What’s Ahead for Stocks So… in the Trump 1.0 era… we had a tug-of-war between faster economic growth and higher inflation, with inflation only becoming a problem when big tariffs arrived in 2018. That is why investors and economists are so squarely focused on Trump’s tariff policy. There was a lot of talk on the campaign trail about big tariffs. Some of that talk has turned into walk. But not much has been enforced (yet), which is why stocks have been doing well in the Trump 2.0 era… so far. Nonetheless, investors should remain vigilant. For now, the market will push higher on optimism for pro-growth policies and lower corporate taxes, as it did in 2017. But pay close to attention to what rhetoric turns into policy. If very little of the tariff talk becomes walk, this market could be on the launching pad for a few years. We think that’s entirely possible. To help us find some of the best stocks to buy for 2025 – perhaps including some “Trump Bump” stocks – we’ve developed a powerful stock screening tool to find the stocks poised to rise over the next 30 days, no matter the macro backdrop. And over the past few months, we’ve used it in real-time internally, with great success. For example, back in July, Auspex helped us score a nearly 40% gain in AnaptysBio (ANAB) and ~30% gains in Zeta Global (ZETA) in just about 30 days. In August, we locked in a ~25% paper profit on Cellebrite (CLBT) in the same timeframe. Similarly, in September, we were able to nab ~25% returns on SiTime (SITM). Then in October, Auspex helped us put together a portfolio of five stocks – and four went on to rise that month, even though the broader market dropped. That is the very real power Auspex can provide. Learn more about how this next-gen tool can help you gain an important edge on the market. Sincerely, | 
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